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It was two months ago that the Villa attacker was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as the Villa manager admonished him over missing a through-ball. During that period, with the team endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether Rogers' form were a sign or a cause of Villa's more general malaise.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

This weekend, in contrast, the manager's outburst proved to be decidedly more positive. As the England international swept in his brace-sealing goal to restore the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician discarded his jacket, spread his arms and bellowed. Villa continued to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their opening six matches, find themselves only three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.

Is This Team Genuine Hopefuls?

This is a particularly tough question to resolve. Past precedent, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been completely commanding during this run, even as the positive results have stacked up.

As per statistical analysis, in only two games has the side had an xG notably superior than the opposition. For a side which has put together a ten-match winning streak, Villa appear strangely fragile – but right now the tight outcomes are falling their way.

The Reliant Strategy

Their recent policy seems to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and wait for their star man to save the day with two precise efforts. This was the case away to Leeds, it transpired in London, and once more when facing United.

Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, bent right inside the upright from a wide position. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he seized on a pass from Watkins.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United registered more shots and more shots on target. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all but one of those matches.

Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival the club must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, will not continue to drilling the ball into the top corner indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Maybe there exists a different scenario in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures could still find their top level.

• The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
• The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he showed during his peak.
• The defensive duo will eventually return from injury, fortifying a periodically leaky backline.

Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.

Relishing the Unlikely

Yet, this is a surprise. Few believed the team would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt back in October, nobody thought the midfielder now would be leading a championship pursuit and appearing as a vital Three Lions star.

This winning streak is to be savoured exactly since it feels so unlikely. As the hero faced the North End when the game ended leading the celebrations, he appeared to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.