🔗 Share this article

Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."